Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.03 – 248.33

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.4 ±13.1

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 28.19Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 157.62Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 159.22Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±11

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 130.39Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 80.39Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 37.55Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 4174, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

345 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 4174, 2491

Auto

52.7 16%

Teleop

199.0 59%

Endgame

84.6 25%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 3082, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 3082, 7530

Auto

46.8 19%

Teleop

143.7 58%

Endgame

59.3 24%

Strengths

· 3297 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score345pts

Blue projected score248.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.7
Score range: 222–371
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.4Season APEX417.9

52.7Auto46.8

199Teleop143.7

84.6Endgame59.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	30
teleop	120	60
endgame	70	62
foul	30	5
total	269	157

Result

Final score

269 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 pts

Match videos

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