Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.13 – 236.65

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±15.3

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 7.88Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 59.78Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 51.47Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±12.2

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 21.02Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 110.61Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 105.02Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2239, 4215, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 4215, 3926

Auto

31.5 26%

Teleop

53.2 44%

Endgame

35.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7849, 4778, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 4778, 2530

Auto

33.7 15%

Teleop

132.4 58%

Endgame

63.0 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.1pts

Blue projected score236.7pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.5
Score range: 93–263
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205Season APEX369

31.5Auto33.7

53.2Teleop132.4

35.3Endgame63

92Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	38
teleop	44	104
endgame	26	48
foul	0	15
total	106	205

Result

Final score

106 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Match videos

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