Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.31 – 79.16

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±18.2

4277Thingamajiggers

Provisional

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX -Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX -Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 38Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±15.8

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 24.86Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 33.14Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4277, 5278, 2667

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4277, 5278, 2667

Auto

20.4 26%

Teleop

37.2 48%

Endgame

19.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2855, 4215, 8422

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2855, 4215, 8422

Auto

20.1 25%

Teleop

31.1 39%

Endgame

28.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.2
Score range: 56–103
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 126.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.5Season APEX235.4

7.7Auto13.7

16Teleop20.6

11.4Endgame23.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	32
teleop	36	119
endgame	0	26
foul	0	0
total	63	177

Result

Final score

63 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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