Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.39 – 65.39

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.3 ±20

4664Butler Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX -Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3038Inter-district Computers and Engineering

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.4 ±17.7

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX -Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5143Raw Steel

Provisional

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4664, 2823, 3038

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4664, 2823, 3038

Auto

19.6 30%

Teleop

32.7 50%

Endgame

13.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2177, 2531, 5143

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2177, 2531, 5143

Auto

19.6 30%

Teleop

32.7 50%

Endgame

13.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.4pts

Blue projected score65.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 41–89
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 130.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.3Season APEX208.4

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	16
teleop	74	40
endgame	41	20
foul	0	0
total	124	76

Result

Final score

124 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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