Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.09 – 154.29

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.2 ±13.4

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 44.46Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 4.86Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 40.77Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.5 ±14.5

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 70.44Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 48.1Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 35.75Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3880, 4239, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3880, 4239, 7530

Auto

29.4 31%

Teleop

40.7 42%

Endgame

25.8 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5690, 8234, 7068

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5690, 8234, 7068

Auto

46.1 30%

Teleop

71.2 46%

Endgame

37.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.1pts

Blue projected score154.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.2
Score range: 66–178
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.2Season APEX273.5

29.4Auto46.1

40.7Teleop71.2

25.8Endgame37.2

42Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	43
teleop	16	95
endgame	8	53
foul	0	0
total	50	191

Result

Final score

50 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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