Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.97 – 277.67

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±13.9

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 67.67Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 18.56Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 54.74Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.6 ±13.5

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 179.42Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 18.56Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 79.69Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4539, 7849, 4009

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4539, 7849, 4009

Auto

21.9 17%

Teleop

69.1 53%

Endgame

39.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2491, 5929, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2491, 5929, 2181

Auto

37.2 14%

Teleop

154.0 59%

Endgame

67.7 26%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141pts

Blue projected score277.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.7
Score range: 117–302
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 134.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.8Season APEX428.6

21.9Auto37.2

69.1Teleop154

39.3Endgame67.7

49Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	35
teleop	76	129
endgame	70	51
foul	0	5
total	168	220

Result

Final score

168 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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