Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.62 – 120.31

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.9 ±18.2

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 24.32Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4225RoboCats

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -0.78Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 39.08Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±17.7

3871THE Trojan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 28.6Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 33.26Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 58.45Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2177, 4225, 2480

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2177, 4225, 2480

Auto

8.8 16%

Teleop

37.2 67%

Endgame

9.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3871, 2667, 4663

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3871, 2667, 4663

Auto

34.5 31%

Teleop

40.8 37%

Endgame

34.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.6pts

Blue projected score120.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.7
Score range: 39–144
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.9Season APEX228.9

8.8Auto34.5

37.2Teleop40.8

9.9Endgame34.4

32Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	15	33
endgame	36	13
foul	5	0
total	70	69

Result

Final score

70 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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