Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.86 – 256.82

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.2 ±20

7019Rubber Ducks

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX -10.36Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 84.77Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4277Thingamajiggers

Provisional

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 12.45Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.4 ±12.2

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 42.58Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 44.7Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 169.54Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7019, 2509, 4277

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7019, 2509, 4277

Auto

20.7 25%

Teleop

43.4 51%

Endgame

20.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3880, 3926, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3880, 3926, 4174

Auto

54.0 22%

Teleop

134.0 53%

Endgame

63.0 25%

Strengths

· 4174 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.9pts

Blue projected score256.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170
Score range: 63–281
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 135.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.2Season APEX459.4

20.7Auto54

43.4Teleop134

20.3Endgame63

58Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	33
teleop	27	157
endgame	45	82
foul	0	0
total	95	272

Result

Final score

95 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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