Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.09 – 172.27

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.2 ±20.5

3038Inter-district Computers and Engineering

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 25.07Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5143Raw Steel

Provisional

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 5.38Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 19.64Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.2 ±16.4

3407Wild Cards

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 25.9Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 75.66Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 70.71Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3038, 5143, 5278

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3038, 5143, 5278

Auto

13.7 32%

Teleop

20.3 47%

Endgame

9.4 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3407, 3082, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3407, 3082, 5690

Auto

35.3 20%

Teleop

105.7 60%

Endgame

35.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score172.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.2
Score range: 26–196
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 135.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.2Season APEX293.2

13.7Auto35.3

20.3Teleop105.7

9.4Endgame35.2

91Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	13
teleop	43	87
endgame	22	70
foul	0	0
total	78	170

Result

Final score

78 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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