Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.43 – 69.19

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.7 ±15

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 69.21Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 19.65Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 45.57Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±14.5

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 43.6Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 21.96Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 3.63Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4539, 5929, 4536

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4539, 5929, 4536

Auto

31.6 26%

Teleop

72.4 59%

Endgame

18.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8234, 2177, 4239

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8234, 2177, 4239

Auto

22.0 35%

Teleop

28.6 45%

Endgame

13.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.4pts

Blue projected score69.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.2
Score range: 44–159
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 136.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.7Season APEX232.5

31.6Auto22

72.4Teleop28.6

18.9Endgame13

40Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	21
teleop	29	37
endgame	19	26
foul	50	10
total	125	94

Result

Final score

125 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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