Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.75 – 146.88

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±16.4

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 56.66Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 111.84Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4664Butler Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 13.25Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±15.9

4225RoboCats

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 5.03Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 43.82Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 98.03Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4009, 2530, 4664

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4009, 2530, 4664

Auto

21.7 12%

Teleop

103.9 60%

Endgame

48.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4225, 7530, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4225, 7530, 2846

Auto

41.5 29%

Teleop

62.1 43%

Endgame

41.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181.8pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.9
Score range: 122–207
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.6Season APEX336

21.7Auto41.5

103.9Teleop62.1

48.4Endgame41.8

93Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	42
teleop	72	34
endgame	56	19
foul	5	0
total	152	95

Result

Final score

152 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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