Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.84 – 62.69

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.7 ±13.9

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 66.13Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 98.97Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 3.74Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.8 ±16.8

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 29.51Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7019Rubber Ducks

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX -11.61Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 44.79Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2855, 4778, 2450

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2855, 4778, 2450

Auto

24.5 15%

Teleop

106.4 65%

Endgame

31.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2470, 7019, 3880

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 7019, 3880

Auto

10.6 17%

Teleop

28.8 46%

Endgame

22.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score168.8pts

Blue projected score62.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.2
Score range: 38–194
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 136.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.7Season APEX280.8

24.5Auto10.6

106.4Teleop28.8

31.9Endgame22.9

29Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	10
teleop	121	32
endgame	59	21
foul	25	0
total	231	63

Result

Final score

231 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree