Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.04 – 77.36

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.9 ±20.9

4207PyroBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 21.52Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 36.11Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5143Raw Steel

Provisional

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 2.41Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.8 ±20

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 25.62Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3454Z Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 38.66Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3745Governors

Provisional

Season APEX 29Event APEX 13.08Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4207, 2480, 5143

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4207, 2480, 5143

Auto

13.3 25%

Teleop

31.0 59%

Endgame

8.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7849, 3454, 3745

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 3454, 3745

Auto

5.2 7%

Teleop

31.9 45%

Endgame

34.0 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.3
Score range: 35–102
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.9Season APEX162.8

13.3Auto5.2

31Teleop31.9

8Endgame34

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	34	3
endgame	20	1
foul	15	0
total	86	21

Result

Final score

86 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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