Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.24 – 135.19

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.5 ±15.6

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 12.81Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 38.44Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 35.99Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±14.1

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 22.02Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 26.62Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 86.55Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4859, 2667, 7068

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4859, 2667, 7068

Auto

38.1 42%

Teleop

20.6 23%

Endgame

32.8 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4230, 5278, 3082

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4230, 5278, 3082

Auto

34.1 26%

Teleop

55.9 43%

Endgame

38.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score135.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.9
Score range: 62–160
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.5Season APEX268.7

38.1Auto34.1

20.6Teleop55.9

32.8Endgame38.7

29Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	30	43
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	63	59

Result

Final score

63 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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