Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.65 – 108.36

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.8 ±13.3

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 24.38Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 71.51Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 10.76Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.2 ±16.3

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 41.39Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 52.84Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 14.13Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2508, 5690, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2508, 5690, 2239

Auto

39.6 38%

Teleop

33.9 32%

Endgame

31.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3926, 4215, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3926, 4215, 2531

Auto

32.6 27%

Teleop

61.2 51%

Endgame

25.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.7pts

Blue projected score108.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.7
Score range: 82–133
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 139.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.8Season APEX233.2

39.6Auto32.6

33.9Teleop61.2

31Endgame25.7

59Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	7
teleop	34	73
endgame	10	34
foul	5	5
total	88	119

Result

Final score

88 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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