Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.63 – 128.2

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±20

3407Wild Cards

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 31.14Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 78.8Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3038Inter-district Computers and Engineering

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 26.69Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.7 ±20

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 107.36Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3871THE Trojan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 21.05Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4229Magnetech

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX -0.21Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3407, 2181, 3038

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3407, 2181, 3038

Auto

15.4 11%

Teleop

75.1 55%

Endgame

45.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2823, 3871, 4229

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2823, 3871, 4229

Auto

34.5 26%

Teleop

67.4 52%

Endgame

28.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.6pts

Blue projected score128.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.4
Score range: 103–162
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 137.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX225.7

15.4Auto34.5

75.1Teleop67.4

45.8Endgame28.8

103Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	44
teleop	67	94
endgame	30	28
foul	5	0
total	138	166

Result

Final score

138 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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