Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.95 – 118.98

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 10 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±16.4

5143Raw Steel

Provisional

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 7.07Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 43.27Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 92.61Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.4 ±15

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 58.45Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 36.07Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 24.46Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5143, 3926, 3082

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5143, 3926, 3082

Auto

26.6 19%

Teleop

69.1 49%

Endgame

46.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4009, 4536, 4230

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4009, 4536, 4230

Auto

24.4 22%

Teleop

50.4 46%

Endgame

35.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24
Score range: 95–167
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 135.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.8Season APEX245.4

26.6Auto24.4

69.1Teleop50.4

46Endgame35

17Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	36
teleop	76	32
endgame	21	47
foul	0	15
total	134	130

Result

Final score

134 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 10 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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