Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.11 – 58.13

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.3 ±12.8

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 31.39Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 66.21Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 170.51Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±17.7

4664Butler Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 17.25Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 30.77Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 10.11Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2508, 4663, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2508, 4663, 4174

Auto

50.6 20%

Teleop

132.1 53%

Endgame

68.5 27%

Strengths

· 4174 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4664, 2470, 4859

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4664, 2470, 4859

Auto

21.1 34%

Teleop

19.3 31%

Endgame

21.1 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score268.1pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210
Score range: 34–292
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.3Season APEX232.5

50.6Auto21.1

132.1Teleop19.3

68.5Endgame21.1

28Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	6
teleop	70	28
endgame	60	10
foul	35	10
total	245	54

Result

Final score

245 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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