Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.52 – 240.17

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±17.3

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 48.37Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4229Magnetech

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 6.9Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 22.25Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.1 ±14.9

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 44.66Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 178.98Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 16.53Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7530, 4229, 7850

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7530, 4229, 7850

Auto

43.8 54%

Teleop

18.5 23%

Endgame

19.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4215, 2491, 2177

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4215, 2491, 2177

Auto

28.8 12%

Teleop

150.1 63%

Endgame

59.0 25%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.5pts

Blue projected score240.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162.6
Score range: 54–264
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211Season APEX407.1

43.8Auto28.8

18.5Teleop150.1

19.4Endgame59

78Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	30
teleop	4	164
endgame	15	62
foul	0	20
total	42	276

Result

Final score

42 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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