Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.41 – 108.99

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±17.7

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 70.03Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3038Inter-district Computers and Engineering

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 34.67Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 30.71Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282 ±14.5

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -5.27Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 50.54Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 63.72Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5690, 3038, 7235

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5690, 3038, 7235

Auto

21.5 17%

Teleop

69.7 55%

Endgame

34.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2450, 4539, 2509

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2450, 4539, 2509

Auto

32.4 32%

Teleop

57.0 56%

Endgame

12.4 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.4pts

Blue projected score109pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 84–160
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 136.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.8Season APEX282

21.5Auto32.4

69.7Teleop57

34.5Endgame12.4

124Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	47
teleop	72	132
endgame	34	26
foul	0	0
total	134	205

Result

Final score

134 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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