Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.81 – 178.12

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.6 ±13.1

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 25.56Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 121.02Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 106.23Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±17.2

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 79.66Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4277Thingamajiggers

Provisional

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 11.06Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 87.4Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 3297, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 3297, 2846

Auto

66.4 27%

Teleop

122.9 51%

Endgame

53.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2855, 4277, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2855, 4277, 2181

Auto

31.6 19%

Teleop

108.7 64%

Endgame

28.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score252.8pts

Blue projected score178.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.7
Score range: 154–277
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 135.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.6Season APEX266.6

66.4Auto31.6

122.9Teleop108.7

53.6Endgame28.9

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	9
teleop	193	96
endgame	23	35
foul	0	5
total	261	145

Result

Final score

261 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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