Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.03 – 76.37

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±17.7

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 41.1Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 75.75Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3871THE Trojan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 27.18Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.8 ±14.5

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 14.09Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 40.81Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 21.47Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4536, 2181, 3871

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4536, 2181, 3871

Auto

29.5 22%

Teleop

76.8 57%

Endgame

29.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4859, 3880, 7850

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4859, 3880, 7850

Auto

22.5 29%

Teleop

44.9 57%

Endgame

10.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144pts

Blue projected score76.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.7
Score range: 50–170
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX303.8

29.5Auto22.5

76.8Teleop44.9

29.5Endgame10.8

115Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	28
teleop	63	23
endgame	18	0
foul	0	0
total	101	51

Result

Final score

101 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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