Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.01 – 111.93

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.2 ±17.7

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -8.86Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 20.54Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4207PyroBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 26.33Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.6 ±15.7

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 76.94Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 20.72Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 14.27Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2450, 2177, 4207

/ 100 compat

Projected

38 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2450, 2177, 4207

Auto

11.6 44%

Teleop

13.5 51%

Endgame

1.4 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2181, 4230, 2480

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2181, 4230, 2480

Auto

22.6 20%

Teleop

66.1 58%

Endgame

25.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38pts

Blue projected score111.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.9
Score range: 14–136
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.2Season APEX240.6

11.6Auto22.6

13.5Teleop66.1

1.4Endgame25.5

106Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	36
teleop	30	55
endgame	17	45
foul	0	30
total	64	166

Result

Final score

64 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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