Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.54 – 293.87

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.8 ±14.5

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 30.07Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 113.84Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 87.63Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534 ±15.5

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 101.94Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4277Thingamajiggers

Provisional

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 17.43Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 174.5Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2531, 2823, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2531, 2823, 5690

Auto

44.1 20%

Teleop

139.0 62%

Endgame

40.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2846, 4277, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2846, 4277, 2491

Auto

41.3 15%

Teleop

176.5 62%

Endgame

64.8 23%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score293.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.3
Score range: 208–318
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 131.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.8Season APEX534

44.1Auto41.3

139Teleop176.5

40.8Endgame64.8

22Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	75
teleop	91	153
endgame	33	93
foul	0	15
total	162	336

Result

Final score

162 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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