Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.09 – 129.35

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.9 ±13.3

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 5.1Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 67.03Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 46.96Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.6 ±17.2

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 60.66Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 42.01Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4229Magnetech

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 26.68Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2239, 2855, 4539

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 2855, 4539

Auto

24.8 22%

Teleop

70.1 62%

Endgame

19.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4663, 8422, 4229

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4663, 8422, 4229

Auto

38.3 32%

Teleop

48.9 41%

Endgame

32.7 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.1pts

Blue projected score129.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 95–153
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.9Season APEX213.6

24.8Auto38.3

70.1Teleop48.9

19Endgame32.7

30Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	35
teleop	80	12
endgame	41	26
foul	5	0
total	154	73

Result

Final score

154 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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