Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.74 – 36.16

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±14.7

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 158.13Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 33.8Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 3.81Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.7 ±20.5

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 34.14Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3038Inter-district Computers and Engineering

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 21.28Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7019Rubber Ducks

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX -19.26Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2491, 7068, 2480

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2491, 7068, 2480

Auto

36.0 18%

Teleop

104.3 52%

Endgame

58.7 29%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4536, 3038, 7019

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4536, 3038, 7019

Auto

1.8 7%

Teleop

1.5 5%

Endgame

24.1 88%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.7pts

Blue projected score36.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.6
Score range: 13–219
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.1Season APEX169.7

36Auto1.8

104.3Teleop1.5

58.7Endgame24.1

102Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	23
teleop	182	36
endgame	71	16
foul	0	0
total	293	75

Result

Final score

293 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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