Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.45 – 124.77

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.1 ±17.7

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 25.4Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4225RoboCats

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 7.14Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 52.91Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.6 ±15

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 5.51Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 44.21Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 75.05Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7235, 4225, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7235, 4225, 3926

Auto

15.1 18%

Teleop

37.8 45%

Endgame

31.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4239, 7068, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4239, 7068, 2855

Auto

24.0 20%

Teleop

58.8 49%

Endgame

37.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.4pts

Blue projected score124.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 59–151
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.1Season APEX248.6

15.1Auto24

37.8Teleop58.8

31.3Endgame37.3

81Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	27
teleop	50	17
endgame	23	43
foul	0	0
total	86	87

Result

Final score

86 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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