Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.33 – 128.68

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.7 ±15.9

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 112.3Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 83.79Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3871THE Trojan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 24.24Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.8 ±17.7

3745Governors

Provisional

Season APEX 29Event APEX 30.34Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 58.04Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 40.3Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 7530, 3871

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 7530, 3871

Auto

49.5 22%

Teleop

123.8 56%

Endgame

47.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3745, 4539, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3745, 4539, 2531

Auto

29.0 23%

Teleop

66.5 53%

Endgame

30.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score220.3pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.7
Score range: 106–243
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 129.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.7Season APEX220.8

49.5Auto29

123.8Teleop66.5

47.1Endgame30.5

37Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	13
teleop	80	58
endgame	47	18
foul	0	0
total	171	89

Result

Final score

171 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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