Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.05 – 163.04

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.1 ±14.5

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 68.89Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 3.83Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 75.33Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.5 ±17.2

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 111.77Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4207PyroBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 23.91Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 27.36Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4663, 4859, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4663, 4859, 2855

Auto

33.4 24%

Teleop

79.3 58%

Endgame

24.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2823, 4207, 4009

/ 100 compat

Projected

163 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2823, 4207, 4009

Auto

31.0 20%

Teleop

81.4 53%

Endgame

41.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.1pts

Blue projected score163pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15
Score range: 125–186
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 127.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.1Season APEX275.5

33.4Auto31

79.3Teleop81.4

24.7Endgame41

59Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	88	129
endgame	38	73
foul	0	0
total	157	232

Result

Final score

157 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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