Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.99 – 100.65

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.3 ±16.4

5143Raw Steel

Provisional

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -5.23Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 100.77Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 18.45Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±17.7

4229Magnetech

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 25.23Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 53.44Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 21.98Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5143, 2846, 8234

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5143, 2846, 8234

Auto

35.2 33%

Teleop

46.8 44%

Endgame

23.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4229, 2509, 7235

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4229, 2509, 7235

Auto

39.6 44%

Teleop

42.8 47%

Endgame

8.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 78–137
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.3Season APEX256.5

35.2Auto39.6

46.8Teleop42.8

23.9Endgame8.1

62Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	40
teleop	74	72
endgame	30	22
foul	0	0
total	141	134

Result

Final score

141 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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