Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.16 – 205.34

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.3 ±16.8

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 90.23Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3407Wild Cards

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 19.22Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 24.71Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±12.2

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 125.21Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 43.67Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 36.46Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4778, 3407, 2470

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4778, 3407, 2470

Auto

24.4 19%

Teleop

63.3 48%

Endgame

43.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 2177, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 2177, 2239

Auto

29.1 14%

Teleop

129.3 64%

Endgame

43.9 22%

Strengths

· 3297 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score205.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.2
Score range: 111–228
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.3Season APEX337.5

24.4Auto29.1

63.3Teleop129.3

43.4Endgame43.9

97Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	43
teleop	91	48
endgame	42	0
foul	0	0
total	152	91

Result

Final score

152 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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