Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.2 – 187.19

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.7 ±14.5

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 34.85Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 40.98Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.37Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.3 ±14.5

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 37.22Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 101.03Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 48.94Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7850, 3926, 7849

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7850, 3926, 7849

Auto

22.4 26%

Teleop

24.0 28%

Endgame

40.0 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5278, 5690, 8422

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5278, 5690, 8422

Auto

33.5 17%

Teleop

118.6 61%

Endgame

42.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score187.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97
Score range: 67–210
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 128.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.7Season APEX194.3

22.4Auto33.5

24Teleop118.6

40Endgame42.5

92Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	30
teleop	46	25
endgame	32	11
foul	0	30
total	99	96

Result

Final score

99 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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