Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.91 – 0

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 104.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584.7 ±10.4

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 122.19Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 79.78Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 22.94Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±15.7

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 1.29Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 4.63Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -12.22Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2491, 3082, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2491, 3082, 2530

Auto

24.4 11%

Teleop

136.8 59%

Endgame

69.3 30%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2508, 2480, 4239

/ 100 compat

Projected

-6.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2508, 2480, 4239

Auto

19.7 0%

Teleop

-22.3 100%

Endgame

-8.5 77%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score224.9pts

Blue projected score-6.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.9
Score range: -23–248
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584.7Season APEX199.9

24.4Auto19.7

136.8Teleop-22.3

69.3Endgame-8.5

0Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	281	5
endgame	92	17
foul	0	0
total	398	36

Result

Final score

398 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 104.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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