Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.36 – 72.28

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434 ±16.4

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 158.73Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3454Z Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 15.36Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 54.27Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.4 ±20

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 19.92Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3038Inter-district Computers and Engineering

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 30.64Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3745Governors

Provisional

Season APEX 29Event APEX 21.72Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4174, 3454, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4174, 3454, 2855

Auto

30.2 14%

Teleop

127.2 59%

Endgame

58.4 27%

Strengths

· 4174 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8234, 3038, 3745

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8234, 3038, 3745

Auto

14.4 21%

Teleop

37.0 54%

Endgame

17.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.4pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.1
Score range: 50–250
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434Season APEX187.4

30.2Auto14.4

127.2Teleop37

58.4Endgame17.5

40Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	23
teleop	196	28
endgame	77	26
foul	0	0
total	302	77

Result

Final score

302 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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