Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.88 – 47.06

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.1 ±12.9

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 51.89Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 19.31Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 123.68Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±18.2

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 15.2Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5143Raw Steel

Provisional

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -6.64Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 38.5Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2531, 3880, 3297

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2531, 3880, 3297

Auto

41.2 20%

Teleop

108.7 54%

Endgame

51.6 26%

Strengths

· 3297 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7235, 5143, 2667

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7235, 5143, 2667

Auto

22.5 52%

Teleop

20.3 47%

Endgame

0.7 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.9pts

Blue projected score47.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.8
Score range: 25–217
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.1Season APEX219.3

41.2Auto22.5

108.7Teleop20.3

51.6Endgame0.7

34Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	18
teleop	113	13
endgame	19	15
foul	0	0
total	172	46

Result

Final score

172 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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