Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.55 – 125.73

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.2 ±16.3

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 17.41Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 39.34Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 33.8Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261 ±14.5

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -19Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 102.57Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 42.16Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7850, 4215, 2470

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7850, 4215, 2470

Auto

19.9 22%

Teleop

50.7 55%

Endgame

21.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5929, 2823, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5929, 2823, 3926

Auto

29.8 24%

Teleop

66.0 52%

Endgame

30.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.6pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.2
Score range: 69–148
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.2Season APEX261

19.9Auto29.8

50.7Teleop66

21.4Endgame30.7

156Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	55
teleop	61	81
endgame	33	38
foul	0	0
total	119	174

Result

Final score

119 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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