Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

308.35 – 149.92

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.2 ±11.7

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 73.6Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 153.11Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 81.64Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.7 ±13.9

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 28.89Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 20.11Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 100.92Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4539, 4174, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4539, 4174, 2846

Auto

59.9 21%

Teleop

160.9 55%

Endgame

70.4 24%

Strengths

· 4174 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2667, 2508, 4778

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2667, 2508, 4778

Auto

36.5 27%

Teleop

61.8 46%

Endgame

37.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score308.4pts

Blue projected score149.9pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.4
Score range: 124–334
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.2Season APEX270.7

59.9Auto36.5

160.9Teleop61.8

70.4Endgame37.2

5Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	27
teleop	181	56
endgame	73	40
foul	20	10
total	340	133

Result

Final score

340 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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