Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.98 – 127.13

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.3 ±20.5

3407Wild Cards

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 44.13Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4229Magnetech

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 69.65Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 59.2Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±13.9

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 96.31Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -12.46Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 43.28Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3407, 4229, 4536

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3407, 4229, 4536

Auto

34.6 21%

Teleop

88.4 53%

Endgame

43.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7530, 2450, 4663

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7530, 2450, 4663

Auto

40.2 32%

Teleop

60.4 49%

Endgame

23.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173pts

Blue projected score127.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 105–195
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.3Season APEX236.1

34.6Auto40.2

88.4Teleop60.4

43.3Endgame23.4

46Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	57
teleop	19	43
endgame	14	27
foul	0	5
total	50	132

Result

Final score

50 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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