Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.08 – 67.94

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.8 ±16.4

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 104.3Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7019Rubber Ducks

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 0.21Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 41.57Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±15

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 19.06Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 39.81Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 9.07Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2846, 7019, 2177

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2846, 7019, 2177

Auto

24.5 17%

Teleop

61.7 44%

Endgame

55.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5278, 4539, 4859

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5278, 4539, 4859

Auto

25.4 42%

Teleop

31.6 52%

Endgame

4.2 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.1pts

Blue projected score67.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.1
Score range: 45–169
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.8Season APEX248.8

24.5Auto25.4

61.7Teleop31.6

55.3Endgame4.2

82Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	22
teleop	53	56
endgame	23	20
foul	30	0
total	123	98

Result

Final score

123 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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