Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.19 – 188.69

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.4 ±13.3

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 52.44Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 28.9Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 45.85Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±16.8

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 81.16Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 96.94Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4225RoboCats

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 10.59Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8422, 2239, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8422, 2239, 2181

Auto

28.1 22%

Teleop

70.4 55%

Endgame

30.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4778, 5690, 4225

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4778, 5690, 4225

Auto

33.2 18%

Teleop

120.0 64%

Endgame

34.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score188.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.5
Score range: 105–211
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.4Season APEX271.2

28.1Auto33.2

70.4Teleop120

30.4Endgame34.8

94Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	15
teleop	90	115
endgame	30	61
foul	0	0
total	160	191

Result

Final score

160 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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