Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
198.21 – 136.72
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
53 – 145
Prediction missed · off by 76.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±14.1
Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 57.15Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 88.37Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 52.69Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 22.45Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 55.64Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 58.63Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2530, 2531, 4230
83
/ 100 compatProjected
198.2 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 2530, 2531, 4230
Auto
39.9 20%
Teleop
104.9 53%
Endgame
54.3 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7849, 2855, 2509
62
/ 100 compatProjected
136.7 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 7849, 2855, 2509
Auto
15.8 12%
Teleop
69.8 52%
Endgame
48.4 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score198.2pts
Blue projected score136.7pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 61.5
- Score range
- 115–220
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
344.7Season APEX277.4
39.9Auto15.8
104.9Teleop69.8
54.3Endgame48.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 37 |
| teleop | 26 | 74 |
| endgame | 12 | 4 |
| foul | 0 | 30 |
| total | 53 | 145 |
Result
Final score
53 – 145
Prediction missed · off by 76.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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