Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 221.91

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.5 ±20.5

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -5.18Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3871THE Trojan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX -13.1Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3407Wild Cards

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 9.04Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.6 ±14.9

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 161.68Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 12.16Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 48.07Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2450, 3871, 3407

/ 100 compat

Projected

-9.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2450, 3871, 3407

Auto

3.5 0%

Teleop

-11.8 100%

Endgame

5.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4174, 4009, 4215

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4174, 4009, 4215

Auto

29.2 14%

Teleop

122.1 57%

Endgame

64.5 30%

Strengths

· 4174 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-9.2pts

Blue projected score221.9pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -221.9
Score range: -22–244
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.5Season APEX428.6

3.5Auto29.2

-11.8Teleop122.1

5.1Endgame64.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	31
teleop	12	101
endgame	8	33
foul	0	0
total	35	165

Result

Final score

35 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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