Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.06 – 84.02

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.3 ±13.3

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 22.74Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 16.13Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 72.19Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.8 ±17.7

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 61.59Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7019Rubber Ducks

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX -7.34Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 29.77Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2181, 2508, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2181, 2508, 7530

Auto

33.1 30%

Teleop

49.2 45%

Endgame

27.6 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8422, 7019, 7235

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8422, 7019, 7235

Auto

11.2 13%

Teleop

49.4 59%

Endgame

22.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27
Score range: 62–133
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.3Season APEX184.8

33.1Auto11.2

49.2Teleop49.4

27.6Endgame22.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	16
teleop	105	20
endgame	38	13
foul	0	0
total	191	49

Result

Final score

191 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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