Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.8 – 118.65

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.2 ±13.9

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 68.4Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 26.24Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 17.16Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±14.7

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 33.21Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 75.05Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 10.39Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2509, 2239, 7850

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2509, 2239, 7850

Auto

28.1 25%

Teleop

59.0 53%

Endgame

24.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2480, 3082, 4859

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 3082, 4859

Auto

27.3 23%

Teleop

70.5 60%

Endgame

20.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.8pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.9
Score range: 89–142
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.2Season APEX295.4

28.1Auto27.3

59Teleop70.5

24.9Endgame20.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	36
teleop	38	30
endgame	29	26
foul	5	0
total	110	92

Result

Final score

110 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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