Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.26 – 182.15

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±19.3

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 58.16Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 18.79Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3407Wild Cards

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 27.31Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.1 ±19.3

7019Rubber Ducks

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX -4.05Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 154.29Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3454Z Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 31.91Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4215, 4230, 3407

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4215, 4230, 3407

Auto

23.2 22%

Teleop

48.7 47%

Endgame

31.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7019, 2491, 3454

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7019, 2491, 3454

Auto

14.4 8%

Teleop

101.2 56%

Endgame

64.1 36%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.3pts

Blue projected score182.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.9
Score range: 78–208
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.7Season APEX378.1

23.2Auto14.4

48.7Teleop101.2

31.6Endgame64.1

50Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	0
teleop	55	75
endgame	40	86
foul	0	0
total	116	161

Result

Final score

116 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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