Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.26 – 42.24

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221 ±13.9

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 3.55Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 53.18Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX -3.47Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.5 ±17.7

4207PyroBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 24.55Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 29.2Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX -11.51Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4009, 8422, 2177

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4009, 8422, 2177

Auto

11.6 23%

Teleop

25.5 50%

Endgame

13.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4207, 7235, 8234

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4207, 7235, 8234

Auto

9.2 22%

Teleop

20.9 50%

Endgame

11.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.3pts

Blue projected score42.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11
Score range: 19–76
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 130.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221Season APEX252.5

11.6Auto9.2

25.5Teleop20.9

13.5Endgame11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	47	31
endgame	33	0
foul	0	5
total	95	63

Result

Final score

95 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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