Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.62 – 82.72

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

364 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 127.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.2 ±12.4

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 16.96Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 104.63Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 25.03Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±17.2

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 13.39Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3454Z Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 34.09Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 35.24Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 4174, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 4174, 2531

Auto

23.5 17%

Teleop

83.5 60%

Endgame

32.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2181, 3454, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2181, 3454, 3926

Auto

-0.1 0%

Teleop

38.8 47%

Endgame

43.0 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.6pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.9
Score range: 61–169
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.2Season APEX241.3

23.5Auto-0.1

83.5Teleop38.8

32.3Endgame43

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	20
teleop	213	43
endgame	90	57
foul	5	0
total	364	120

Result

Final score

364 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 127.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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