Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.29 – 52.03

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.4 ±17.3

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 25.69Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 7.89Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5143Raw Steel

Provisional

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 21.71Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.7 ±20.5

4277Thingamajiggers

Provisional

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 11.98Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 15.43Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3038Inter-district Computers and Engineering

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 24.62Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2239, 4859, 5143

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 4859, 5143

Auto

15.1 28%

Teleop

25.6 47%

Endgame

13.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4277, 2450, 3038

/ 100 compat

Projected

52 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4277, 2450, 3038

Auto

6.0 11%

Teleop

33.1 63%

Endgame

13.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.3pts

Blue projected score52pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.3
Score range: 29–78
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 65 vs event baseline 129.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.4Season APEX184.7

15.1Auto6

25.6Teleop33.1

13.6Endgame13.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	16
teleop	7	13
endgame	6	10
foul	0	0
total	26	39

Result

Final score

26 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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