Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

37.5 – 31.94

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±15

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 16.32Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 6.67Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 14.51Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.6 ±17.2

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 5.5Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3871THE Trojan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 14.23Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 12.21Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7849, 4239, 5278

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 4239, 5278

Auto

3.3 9%

Teleop

10.4 28%

Endgame

23.0 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2470, 3871, 2508

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 3871, 2508

Auto

4.8 18%

Teleop

-3.4 0%

Endgame

25.6 95%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.5pts

Blue projected score31.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: 8–62
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.2Season APEX225.6

3.3Auto4.8

10.4Teleop-3.4

23Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	29	9
endgame	15	8
foul	0	0
total	59	37

Result

Final score

59 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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