Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.1 – 216.31

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 160.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.2 ±13.5

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 21.5Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 40.17Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 35.43Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±16.8

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 88.29Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4664Butler Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 35.43Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 92.59Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4230, 3297, 2823

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4230, 3297, 2823

Auto

8.6 9%

Teleop

47.7 50%

Endgame

39.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7530, 4664, 4539

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7530, 4664, 4539

Auto

36.6 17%

Teleop

122.2 58%

Endgame

51.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.1pts

Blue projected score216.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.2
Score range: 74–239
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.2Season APEX216.7

8.6Auto36.6

47.7Teleop122.2

39.9Endgame51.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	42
teleop	171	32
endgame	54	22
foul	0	0
total	298	96

Result

Final score

298 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 160.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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